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Vinny · The book
“One second. Counting the house money.”
“One second. Counting the house money.”
A moneyline moving from -150 to -170 sounds small. Converted to probability, it tells you how far the market moved.
A moneyline price implies a win probability. Moving from -150 to -170 moves the implied probability from 60.0% to about 63.0%, and the same 20-point step is worth less at -250 than at -150. The price already contains the move. It is not a prediction that the team wins.
Cents, schments. Minus 150, minus 170, what is twenty points of price between friends? Nothing. Twenty points is nothing. I take them from you twenty at a time and you never notice. That is my favourite currency.
I thought a bigger minus was just more minus. A favourite went from -150 to -170 and I figured that meant they were better, so I took them at -170.
It did mean the market thought they were better, about three points better, and I paid for all of it. They won, and I told everyone I had seen it coming, which was a mistake, because I had not. I did the math afterwards, which is the order I do everything in.
A moneyline price implies a win probability. For a favourite it is the price divided by the price plus 100; for an underdog it is 100 divided by the price plus 100. Example: -150 implies 60.0%; -170 implies 62.96%; +130 implies 43.48%; +150 implies 40.0%.
So -150 to -170 moved the implied probability about 3 points. The same 20-point step from -250 to -270 moves it from 71.43% to 72.97%, about 1.5 points. Example: -110 to -120 moves it from 52.38% to 54.55%. Equal steps in price are not equal in probability, and per 10 points of price a step near even money is the bigger move.
Remember the vig. Both sides of a market add to more than 100%, so compare to the other side before treating a price as a pure probability. A price step toward a team means the market raised its estimate of that team. The price you can get now already contains that. A good price is not a win, and a positive expected value at placement is not realized return. Losing bets at good prices count exactly the same as winning ones. For information only, not betting advice. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
For a favourite, divide the price by the price plus 100. For an underdog, divide 100 by the price plus 100. -150 gives 60.0%, and +150 gives 40.0%.
No. Example: -150 to -170 is about 3.0 points of implied probability, while -250 to -270 is about 1.5 points. The steps get smaller in probability as the favourite gets heavier.
Yes. Both sides of a market add to more than 100%. The extra is the vig, so compare a price to the other side of the same market before reading it as a probability.