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Vinny · The book
“One second. Counting the house money.”
“One second. Counting the house money.”
+EV means the bet makes money over time. –EV means it doesn't. Every bet you've ever placed is one of these two things.
Expected value is how much a bet makes or loses on average across many repetitions: EV = (win probability × profit) − (loss probability × stake). Rate a team at 55% on a -110 line and EV = (0.55 × $100) − (0.45 × $110) = +$5.50, so the bet is worth making. A negative result means it isn't.
Expected value is the most dangerous concept for my business. If every bettor understood it — really understood it — my profits drop by half overnight.
The beautiful thing is that most people will read a quick explanation of EV, nod, and then go right back to betting on vibes. "I just have a feeling about this game." That feeling is –EV. That feeling is my retirement fund.
I've heard "plus EV" thrown around for years. For most of that time I used it as a synonym for "good bet." Like this bet has good vibes, it's plus EV.
It is not a vibes metric. It is a math metric. I know that now.
Expected value is how much you expect to make or lose on a bet, on average, over many repetitions.
Formula: EV = (Probability of Win × Profit) – (Probability of Loss × Stake). Example: you think a team has a 55% chance to win. Line is -110 ($110 to win $100). EV = (0.55 × $100) – (0.45 × $110) = $55 – $49.50 = +$5.50. Over 100 identical bets, you expect +$550. Now same bet but the team is actually 50/50: EV = (0.50 × $100) – (0.50 × $110) = –$5. Lose $500 over 100 bets.
This is the entire Edge Extreme model. We only post picks where our probability estimate puts the bet in +EV territory. The line doesn't tell you whether to bet — our probability estimate tells you whether the line is wrong enough to be worth it.
Expected value (EV) is the average amount a bet returns if placed many times. Positive EV means it profits long term; negative EV means it loses long term.
EV = (probability of winning × profit) − (probability of losing × stake). Rate an underdog at 45% on a +150 line: (0.45 × $150) − (0.55 × $100) = +$12.50 per bet.
No. EV describes the long-run average, not any single result. A +EV bet can lose; the edge only shows up across a large sample of similar bets.